The roads suddenly seem much quieter at 8:15 in the morning, on the way in to work. What was a battle last week felt like a breeze today, heading along Herne Hill!
In family homes across the land, fridges and larders have developed magical portals that swallow all provisions no sooner have they been stocked…
Kitchens, living rooms, hallways and bedrooms are bedecked with paper-plate artwork, toilet-roll sculptures and plastic milk bottle inspired… what is that thing exactly? A submarine?! OK, darling, yes I can see that now…
Yes, it’s that time of year again (already!) with the summer holidays upon us – the blessing and the curse that they are – as routines take a one-way trip out the window, and the Great British Public switch between complaining it is too wet and cold, to complaining it is too hot and dry, every three or four days.
Yet as Herne Hill residents scatter to seaside towns or hilly downs, or jump on planes, ferries or cruise ships to head off to even sunnier climes, many people do begin to wonder whether now is the best moment to have their home on the market.
So, what actually happens to the property market in the summer? Should you pause everything until September? Or is this season one of the best-kept secrets in the property market calendar?
I thought I’d take a look…
It’s easy to talk anecdotally, but let’s take a quick look at real statistics to see what does happen here in Herne Hill during the summer months, based on historic data.
One key driver to look at is ‘time on market’ over past summers compared to other times of the year. This can indicate a few things, but not least it indicates buyer demand – because when demand dries up, properties can sit on the market for longer.
This graph shows annual trends for ‘time on market (from listing to sale-agreed)’ in Herne Hill over the past 10 years:
If the market experiences less demand over the summer, we would expect to see average transaction times become longer in September, October and November, rather than July and August. The above graph shows this to have been the case in Herne Hill in most years (ignore 2020 – Covid, and more particularly Lockdown, conspired to distort the market).
So yes, it does look like properties that come to market over the summer can take a bit longer to find a buyer on average – although the findings are not ‘clear cut’.
Another indicator we can look at is sold prices. Do sale prices drop in the summer? Do properties become ‘worth less’ as demand falls?
To establish that, we can look at Land Registry data – but again, you have to consider conveyancing time.
Sales recorded in August were probably agreed in April or May – so to judge what prices were in fact being agreed in August, we have to look at sold data recorded in completions processed in November, December, perhaps even January!
According to Land Registry data, we can definitely see monthly fluctuations in prices, going back over that same 10 year period. Sometimes these are between September and December. Sometimes, though, we see prices increase between September and December – for example, just last year, 2024, property prices fell in October, but rose in November, then fell again in December, but were rising again by January. In fact, prices fell monthly in March 2017, May 2019, April and July 2021…
There can be some evidence of prices falling in August, but there is also a risk of seeing what you are trying to find if you are not careful.
In reality, there is little evidence that property price drops correlate to a ‘summer holiday effect’ in itself, since prices have fluctuated up and down at different times of year over the past decade.
Therefore, what prices might do or not do over the Summer is not reliable as a true indicator.
So, is the summer quiet when it comes to the Herne Hill property market?
Clearly, but perhaps frustratingly, it looks a ‘yes and no’ answer.
What matters are the reasons for any slowdown, whether your estate agent has the know-how to recognise the trends, and whether they have plans in place to deal with a quieter market, if so.
Now that we have had a look at data, let’s also talk anecdotally, because in my opinion, which is based on experience on the ground,activity can dip during the school summer holidays.
Some buyers and sellers will put their plans on hold until the “back to school” routine returns; some people just find that life becomes too chaotic and distracting when they have children off school to keep entertained, weddings, birthdays, bar mitzvahs and other celebratory events to go to at weekends, or a two-week holiday to go on themselves.
Solicitors, surveyors and mortgage brokers are only human too, and they often take annual leave themselves. This can slow things down if you are into the moving process already. Some solicitors get locums in, who may keep plates spinning but won’t often truly progress a case to move it forward. If you are currently mid-transaction yourself, you might already be noticing delays.
Nevertheless, we are talking very generally here and the reality is that not everyone is going to hit that pause button.
For some people, the summer holidays are exactly the break in normal proceedings they have been waiting for to ‘get moving’, and they might happily spend their summer out on viewings.
For those without children, they will often avoid taking a holiday over the six weeks of school break, when the cost of holidays escalates pretty rapidly and the destinations themselves get crowded.
At the same time, there will be some buyers and sellers who do have children under their feet, do have a two week holiday booked over the summer, but will still be actively looking right now. If they are, that could well mean that they have a pressing need – perhaps a sale agreed of their own property, or some sort of deadline to hit (job move, etc.) that means they are doing whatever they need to do to expedite their own sale.
The point is these types tend to be highly motivated. They're serious. They're ready to make decisions. And with fewer homes coming to market over late July and August, it normally means less competition for attention.
A property that is priced well and marketed well is likely to go down well.
There are undoubtedly some unique challenges to consider during the summer:
But realistically these are things that can and should be managed. Many agents (ourselves included) will offer block viewings or open houses. When a homeowner’s own diary is restricted, these are great mechanisms to minimise disruption.
Video tours or virtual walkthroughs aren’t a perfect substitute for viewings, but if a property is really out of bounds for a period they can help maintain buyer interest - useful when people are away, especially if strategised to build up a head of steam and push interested parties into an open house or block viewings session once access can be granted again.
With the right planning and styling, a property can truly shine in the summer; gardens in bloom, light pouring in, perhaps fresh flowers strategically placed throughout.
If it is stiflingly hot, cool down rooms with electric fans… and here’s one more little tip I learned along the way: citrus scents; they really cut through summer heat.
The summer may or may not yield a sale – but once the summer break is over, September will traditionally experience a “mini boom”.
Families slip back into their routines, the gears of the market grind into motion, and without wanting to mention the ‘C’ word (but in property terms it isn’t far away), those wanting to move before Christmas seize the moment to get a wriggle on. There will be less than four months to spare by the time we get to the end of the school summer holidays. We often see a spike of activity in the first fortnight in September as buyers start searching again in earnest.
If you are one of those thinking about a move and wondering when the right time to list will be, here’s a way to look at it: if you are on the market in the summer, you might find a motivated buyer during the period; there is every chance. If you are buying on, that puts you in a proceedable position to capitalise on the flood of new listings we will see in September.
If you aren’t listed in the summer, you won’t find a buyer during the period – without wishing to state the obvious.
But still, if you’re listed and you don’t find a buyer, you will at least be live and ready for that September rush, already in people’s inboxes, perhaps having already gleaned some useful feedback from the market about your own property, meaning you and your estate agent can properly attack it once it truly kicks back into life.
In property market terms, it’s a bit like skipping the queue.
There are opportunities for buyers too. Fewer casual house-hunters come out looking, so you’ll often find that compared to other times of the year you can get more time and attention from estate agents.
You may spot the gem that pops up whilst others are away, perhaps giving you a clear run at something that would at other times pick up multiple bids.
Finally, if you're ready and able to act quickly, with clear finances already in place, you may find some sellers more receptive to reasonable offers – especially if those sellers are hoping to get their property under offer before they head off on their own well-earned holidays.
Too many people write off the summer – but don’t!
Admittedly, it can feel like a market with a different pace, and yes, there are going to be some distractions – but we can navigate all that. It really doesn’t mean the market stops, and in fact for some it often becomes more focused.
There is less white noise and some serious movers come out of the woodwork who will attack the process at full speed, with their own self-imposed window of opportunity to try to make a move happen within the timeframe they’re aiming for
If you're thinking of making a move, now could be exactly the right moment to start the process – including those who also do want to get a bit of beach-time in themselves.
Don’t let a good chance to snap up a buyer slip through your fingers – give us a call at Petermans to see who we’re dealing with right now, or book a valuation by clicking the link here, and perhaps we can put two and two together and make four, long before the suntans fade.
Not necessarily. While some buyers and sellers put things on hold during the school holidays, others use the quieter period to their advantage. There’s often less competition, and motivated buyers are still active, especially those with a deadline to meet before Christmas.
There’s little hard evidence that the summer alone causes house prices to fall in Herne Hill. Some seasonal dips have been recorded, but they tend to be modest (usually less than 1% in a month) and are more likely influenced by wider market forces rather than the school holiday calendar alone.
It’s true that holidays can sometimes slow things down, especially with solicitors and surveyors taking time off. But with good communication and proactive planning, like block viewings or property videos, your property sale can still move forward smoothly.
Only if you’re not ready now. Being on the market during the summer gives you the chance to catch the serious buyers who are looking, and puts you in a strong position when the September mini-boom begins. It helps you skip the queue.
We are required by law to conduct anti-money laundering checks on all those selling or buying a property. Whilst we retain responsibility for ensuring checks and any ongoing monitoring are carried out correctly, the initial checks are carried out on our behalf by Lifetime Legal who will contact you once you have agreed to instruct us in your sale or had an offer accepted on a property you wish to buy. The cost of these checks is £60 (incl. VAT), which covers the cost of obtaining relevant data and any manual checks and monitoring which might be required. This fee will need to be paid by you in advance of us publishing your property (in the case of a vendor) or issuing a memorandum of sale (in the case of a buyer), directly to Lifetime Legal, and is non-refundable. We will receive some of the fee taken by Lifetime Legal to compensate for its role in the provision of these checks.