Another week, another article about changing property values.
But whereas in last week’s blog I wrote to tell you about the 1.2% price drop in July, this week, I’m writing to tell you about the 0.6% price increase in July.
So… which is it? Were the numbers wrong last week? Are the numbers correct this week? Just what exactly is going on?
Welcome to the topsy world of property price reporting, where two headlines can both be true at once… even if neither one offers the full picture.
OK, then; let’s unpick this, and see what’s going on...
The figure we referenced last week – which was from national news reports – came from Rightmove’s latest House Price Index.
It was widely picked up by the national press, and hence it felt right to report it – although mainly, my motivation was to challenge those headlines – especially those hinting, if not claiming, that a property crash was coming or indeed was here already.
So let’s look at that first.
Rightmove’s index captures a truly broad slice of the UK housing market, as most UK properties are advertised on this portal – and so for this reason, the Rightmove House Price Index deserves monitoring.
It was here that the 1.2% fall in asking prices in July was reported – noteworthy for two reasons; firstly, because it was the steepest fall in July for over 20 years, and secondly because it followed a 0.3% drop in June – modest, but coming in a month that normally sees prices increase slightly (by an average of 0.4% over 9 of the past 10 years).
Crucially, however, Rightmove’s index is based on asking prices on new listings. It is not reporting what buyers are actually paying.
It did not mean, therefore, that actual house values had fallen by 1.2%. Perhaps it indicated that sellers have tempered their pricing a little at the point of listing; perhaps it simply reflects a random occurrence where fewer large, expensive listings came to market than normal, but greater numbers of smaller, less valuable properties did?
The point of my piece last week was to say: let’s just take a moment here. Let’s take stock and look at the bigger picture – because being the ‘steepest’ drop doesn’t mean that drops in July are unusual; in fact, they are perhaps to be expected.
Overall, our data shows that market sentiment remains strong. We have seen the base rate cut to 4% just today (I write this on August 7, 2025), and many experts still predict further base rate cuts to come this year. Today’s news and the expectation of further cuts to come should bolster the longer-term outlook for the market, as buyer affordability eases.
Fast-forward just a few days from the release of Rightmove’s House Price Index and headlines of a 1.2% property price drop, and we found ourselves reading instead about a 0.6% rise in property values in July. This was as reported by Nationwide.
Are we confused? We needn’t be.
The reality is that these two indices are reporting on different things.
Nationwide’s index is based on mortgage approvals for house purchases. It reflects agreed sale prices where a mortgage has been secured – and it is also worth noting that this is specifically where a mortgage has been secured through Nationwide.
In a sense, this must be more closely aligned to what buyers were actually happy to pay for properties in July – with the caveat of course that it relates only to buyers taking a Nationwide mortgage (that is a lot of mortgages, however!).
Nationwide’s sample size therefore is smaller than Rightmove’s. Nevertheless, it gives us insight into buyer activity and agreed values at the point of sale. As a representative cross-section of society, it certainly provides us a useful tool when it comes to working out market trends.
So whilst Rightmove said “asking prices are lower this month than last month”, Nationwide has effectively said “buyers are paying slightly more this month than last month”.
Both statements can be true at once. And are true.
Neither tells us what average prices for all property sales are actually completing at. For that, we’ll have to wait for the Land Registry data, which lags by several months but gives us the most accurate record of completed transactions.
To know what prices really have done in July 2025, we’ll probably have to wait until January or February 2026, once the bulk of those sales not only complete but also get recorded.
Monthly data allows us to spot emerging patterns and trends, which helps us better advise the clients whose properties we are instructed to sell, and comes into the research we undertake when consulting with potential clients about marketing.
These monthly figures can sometimes be newsworthy – but at times, the headlines that media outlets run with just sound sensational to us (let alone the general public!), and the projections of the journalists reporting the story often seem little more than conjecture; worse still, sensationalised conjecture.
Monthly data can offer a temperature check – but that is not the same as a diagnosis. In other words, we get a snapshot, but we do not get the full picture. And, as we’ve seen, a picture can look very different depending which way the camera is pointing.
We do look at monthly statistics, but it is important to also combine with annual figures to get a better sense of the direction of travel, of cause and effect, of the wider landscape; whatever it may be.
Prices may be 1.2% down or 0.6% up in a single month; in both cases, they would strike me as being within a margin of error.
Over 12 months, though, maybe even over six months or dare I suggest three months, we can establish a more rounded story.
But then again, it is also not only about whether the data is monthly, quarterly or annual; it is also important to look at ‘what’ and ‘where’. Are we looking at ‘Asking Prices’ or ‘Sale Agreed Prices’ or ‘Completions’? Are we accounting for volume of sales? Speed of transactions? Are we establishing external environment – social, political, economic factors, etc.? What geography does the data come from, and what is the source? National, or local; official government, or commercial? And is it whole of market or part? If part, is it nevertheless representative?
These are all things we need to consider when pulling these figures apart and offering our views. It’s a lot to think about!
We should look at both the broader national headlines as well as digging into local data to unpack the story when it comes to selling property in Herne Hill in 2025.
Despite the noise and the headlines, the market is very much behaving in line with broader economic conditions and seasonal expectations.
There are 554 properties available for sale within a mile of Herne Hill according to property data site Home.co.uk. A week ago, that number was 569.
It is a small drop in volume – but perhaps it is relevant that it is a drop nevertheless.
It means some of that bloating of the local Herne Hill property market is easing off – fewer houses for sale but still an active pool of buyers buying, usually feels like a more comfortable market-place, from a homeowner’s perspective at least – even though Estate Agents would always appreciate more properties for sale to get stuck into!
Looking at data from Rightmove, we can see that prices here remain ahead.
The average sale price here is £847,073, 4% up year on year, which is ahead of London as a whole, where prices have flatlined or dropped in some boroughs.
There was a fallout from the post-pandemic property boom. That is still working its way through the system. Prices were inflated, borrowing was cheap which fuelled the market, and therefore demand was supercharged.
Since then we’ve seen a correction, a recalibration, and now perhaps we are heading towards a little more stability.
These news headlines that ask “is the market crashing?” are missing the point. The question to ask – and the one that it is our job as local Herne Hill Estate Agents to answer – is actually: “what is the new normal?”
At the end of the day, house price indices are only part of the story, and the news outlets that might report them are only looking at numbers on spreadsheets and graphs.
They can’t tell you what your home is worth in your street, with your unique features, and they don’t know what local buyers are really paying right now. We do – because we are negotiating sales with them every week.
That is the benefit of truly local agents. We don’t just read about the market; we live in it! We are in and out of local Herne Hill homes every day. We speak to different local buyers and sellers every few minutes of the day! We know what properties are getting offers, which ones are sitting still and why, and of course we also know about those that go under the radar. Rightmove is good – but it won’t tell you everything.
Likewise, no house price index can give you the kind of insight that comes from being hands on, sleeves rolled up, at the coal face… or whatever other analogy we might want to use to convey that we are knee deep and getting stuck into the local Herne Hill property market every day. We live and breathe it.
So if you want the real picture, and not just the headlines, we should have a proper talk about things. We can help you understand your property’s true place in today’s market, based on experience, not just extrapolation of data. We can not only answer the questions you want to ask, but we can solve the problems you need solutions to.
That’s what local estate agency is all about.
We are required by law to conduct anti-money laundering checks on all those selling or buying a property. Whilst we retain responsibility for ensuring checks and any ongoing monitoring are carried out correctly, the initial checks are carried out on our behalf by Lifetime Legal who will contact you once you have agreed to instruct us in your sale or had an offer accepted on a property you wish to buy. The cost of these checks is £60 (incl. VAT), which covers the cost of obtaining relevant data and any manual checks and monitoring which might be required. This fee will need to be paid by you in advance of us publishing your property (in the case of a vendor) or issuing a memorandum of sale (in the case of a buyer), directly to Lifetime Legal, and is non-refundable. We will receive some of the fee taken by Lifetime Legal to compensate for its role in the provision of these checks.